Awesome CG/Wall Cloud shot from MN!

Captured this awesome lightning bolt at fairly close range in front of a ground-scraping wall cloud in Minnesota May 1st, 2012! Cell was tornado-warned for several hours...had great rotation and structure, and several funnels, but we never observed any ground circulations.

5-5-12 Chase Forecast

Currently sitting in Dubuque, IA, picking up a couple people for the chase tomorrow in South Dakota. Certainly not the best setup I've ever seen, but one that definitely has the potential for some nice tornadoes.

Latest runs of the NAM forecast model show an elongated low with associated warm front set up over Nebraska and South Dakota tomorrow afternoon/evening. Dewpoints are forecast to be in the lower 70s, CAPE values over 4000, and a moderate 500mb jet should be in place along the warm front by 4 PM. Helicity  and bulk shear values look to be more than sufficient for supercell structures, and potentially strong tornadoes. Any cells that fire near the warm front and are able to latch on to it will have to greatest tornado threat. Only real question for the day is whether storms will be able to stay discrete...4000 CAPE normally denotes a derecho threat. Updates to follow!

Amazing MN Tornadic Supercell! - 5-1-2012

What looked like a fairly mediocre setup with a solid dry air punch advecting in to kill storms turned into an incredible day as an isolated tornadic supercell rooted onto the warm front and dove east. Plenty of intense moments on the chase, including a point in Sauk City where traffic slowed us down enough to where the circulation crossed right overhead!

Here's a shot from my chase partner Jonathan Williamson...I'll have video up later. Chasing today in IA/SD/NE...hoping for some sort of outflow boundary magic.

Incredible inflow tail to the right, rapidly rotating wall cloud in the center, rear flank downdraft punch to the left.

Chase Plans - May 1st, 2012

Heading north to Madison, WI in a couple hours, meeting up with a couple chasers there and heading up to Minnesota for tomorrow's setup. Concerned about the lack of appreciable upper level/500mb jet support, but it's close enough to be worth a play.

Ended up with about 3,400 miles over the last few days...brief tornado captured in eastern KS, nice structure all three days, but overall fairly underwhelming. Be nice to change that the next couple days...see if we're able to pull some magic out of the warm sector tomorrow!

Chase update - 4-26/4-27-2012

Currently in West Memphis, TN, getting the Jetta some upgrades for what looks like a significant tornado threat over SE CO/SW KS/NW OK late tomorrow afternoon. Don't have time to post an updated forecast, but what I posted before is pretty much on track. Blasting west to OKC for the night, then NW tomorrow afternoon!

After that, looks like the 27th is going to be a warm front play in central MO...head up that way, then home Friday night/Saturday morning. Could be a couple of great days!

Forecast: 4/27 - 4/28/2012

The long-range GFS model has been showing potential for severe weather/tornadoes towards the end of this coming week...here's a quick overview of the situation.

For the 27th, a strong dryline is forecast to set up over eastern Colorado down through west Texas.

500mb jet aoa 50 kts isn't fantastic, but will support supercell storm structures. 

Bulk shear values at over 60 kts are forecast...more than sufficient for strong rotating supercells. 

Gorgeous hodo...definitely suggests the possibility of strong tornadoes.

Only limiting factors with the GFS are CAPE and the possibility of warmer temps advecting in at 925 mb and creating a capping inversion...GFS normally underestimates CAPE, though, so that doesn't appear to be an issue. The cap, on the other hand, looks like it may be an issue both on the 27th and the 28th...we'll see how it plays out.

Afa the 28th is concerned, the setup is basically the same. 

Dryline looks almost exactly the same...even in the same place as the day before! Biggest difference here is the hint of a low center developing in SE Colorado...if this happens, it should enhance directional shear in SW KS, especially. 

Again, an absolutely gorgeous hodo right on the SW KS/OK border...if this verifies, strong tornadoes will again be a concern. 

GFS is a bit more generous with the CAPE on the 28th...2500+ is more than enough to get sups rolling. 

In essence, while still a ways out, and subject to change drastically...a rudimentary look at the weather models are sufficient to show that a significant severe weather outbreak could occur late next week over the southern plains...I'll be on leave for a couple weeks starting this week, so I'll definitely be playing these setups! 

Close-Range Footage from the April 14th, 2012 Tornado Outbreak!

Here it is!